Save Our Sprawl? Evidence Suggests A Smart Growth Future
Low density housing, complete reliance on the automobile, isolation from goods and services, lack of recreational choices, and dull culture—all sprawl traits.
High density housing, multimodal transit choices, immersion in goods and services, overflowing recreational choices, and vibrancy—all urban traits.
Put the two traits side-by-side, show to one of my peers (highly educated, late 20s/early 30s, Northeast born-and-raised), and what will s/he probably pick as more desirable?
Without hesitation, the urban lifestyle.
It’s not just anecdotal evidence.
In a recently released report, Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2010, prepared by the Urban Land Institute and PriceWaterhouseCoopers, insight gleaned from almost 1,000 real estate industry professionals suggests that the future is bright for smart growth, while “sprawl investment” is on the decline. (Even though the overall tone of the report is gloomy for real estate as a whole.) This finding is consistent with recent data.
In an April 2009 NRDC post, Kaid Benfield cites a 2007 National Association of Realtors survey of registered voters that found:
- 57% agree that “business and homes should be built closer together” so stores and shops are within walking distance;
- 61% agree that new home construction should be limited in outlying areas and encouraged in very urban areas;
- 81% want to redevelop older areas rather than building new;
- 83% support “building communities where people can walk places and use their cars less”; and,
- 88% support more public transportation.
In the same post, Benfield continues:
Arthur C. (Chris) Nelson, now at the University of Utah, and a scholar who knows more about these things than anyone else I know, has examined homebuyer preference surveys. Nelson reports that fully three-fourths of Americans now prefer either attached housing (apartments, condos, townhouses) or homes on small lots of approximately one sixth of an acre or smaller. 25 percent express a preference for homes on larger lots above one sixth of an acre in size.
If the anti-sprawl sentiment continues (evidence does not suggest otherwise), expect a surge of density in our future, as the post World War II suburban boom—lasting over 60 years—may see a quick death, thanks to the economic downturn, shifting demographics, and new expectations.
From Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2010:
Next-generation projects will orient to infill, urbanizing suburbs, and transit-oriented development. Smaller housing units-close to mass transit, work, and 24-hour amenities-gain favor over large houses on big lots at the suburban edge. People will continue to seek greater convenience and want to reduce energy expenses. Shorter commutes and smaller heating bills make up for higher infill real estate costs.
In New Jersey, sprawl is still alive, yet planners have been promoting urbanizing suburbs for years, and real estate developers, pushed by recent economic prosperity and market demands, have acquiesced. While sprawl is still alive, it is under constant assault.
Why?
Excessive traffic, unconscionable property taxes, overflowing school systems, lack of mass transit, high energy costs, shifting demographics, and way too many unshared municipal services (too many local governmental bodies). Moreover, judging from my peers, many are eschewing the suburban lifestyle—even though they had enjoyed a comfortable suburban upbringing—and flocking to urban areas.
It’s not just NYC, Hoboken, and Jersey City, of course. To name a few, New Brunswick, Westfield, Asbury Park, Red Bank, and Collingswood—all struggling communities just a few decades ago—are booming with yuppies and DINKs (double income, no kids). These locales have benefited from state funding and market driven redevelopment, both of which flowed like water during the 1990s and most of this decade.
Even though some of New Jersey’s downtown districts are struggling during the ongoing recession, thanks to recent redevelopment, cultural shifts, and legislative action, expect them to rebound well. The real protector, however, is a vibrant housing stock.
The theory is quite fundamental; sufficient housing engenders a critical mass of people within a finite area, creating synergy. In a downtown, as logic dictates, the residents can therefore support the local businesses, whose owners not only see an influx of revenue, but also have an incentive to maintain and improve their uses, as competition becomes fiercer. Housing generates people, people spend money, and businesses benefit, resulting in a safer and aesthetically pleasing environment and an influx of monies into the municipal coffers.
The housing has been built, and the residents are there, propelling a symbiotic relationship between the residents and shop owners, which is currently helping to sustain newly revitalized downtown cores.
There is now an established urban culture in New Jersey, and the state is doing everything possible to protect this core.
In a July post about the New Jersey Economic Stimulus Act of 2009, I wrote that the bill “seeks to spur economic development, while also artfully promoting smart growth practices.” In essence, although the urban core has already been established, more urban development is necessary to ensure prosperity during economic recovery:
It’s clear: with rising costs of materials, the burgeoning green movement, and statewide and federal policy anti-sprawl policy, the new waves of development will take the shape of redevelopment in our urban areas, where the infrastructure exists and where people can live, work, and play without a heavy reliance on the automobile.
Provide the incentives now in the lean times to develop, and once the economy rebounds, the foundation will have already been established, thus lessening the cost and hurdle of future development projects. This is smart growth in action.
My peers want smart growth; protecting the urban core is sprawl kryptonite.
They want to establish roots in vibrant, dense urban environments, rather than isolated suburban subdivisions devoid of soul. Anecdotal evidence suggests that most of my friends (and not just my urban planning buddies) are interested in planting roots in urban communities, even suggesting that they would like to raise children there. Of course, as highlighted above, empirical evidence backs my findings, too.
Quite simply, the suburbs will never “fail,” but they’re in trouble, especially since the ongoing economic downturn is radically change our culture. The urban foundation has already been set for Generation X/Y. When the economy does rebound, look for continued urban support from the government (smart growth will become even more salient), which will in turn spur market activity in areas slated for growth.
Urban planning practices will become even more sustainable, just like the rest of our economy. This sustainable outlook will therefore propel a fundamental urban lifestyle.
Count on it.
So yes, the suburbs are really in trouble. Growth is not only least needed there, but our shifting culture will simply not stand for the continued destructiveness of sprawl.
Perhaps this is just one silver lining of the recession.
Related posts on The New Wave Planner:
A Win For Urban Planning: Supermarkets Potentially On Their Way To New Jersey Cities
Innovation Is Now King, And It’s Perfectly Parallel With Obama’s Urban Policy Goals
Backyard Chicken Coops? Urban Farming? There’s A Silver Lining To The Recession
NYC Planners: Zoning Bonuses Will Spur Healthy Eating And Economic Development
Once Again, The Baby Boomers Are Changing Housing
Save “Jersey Fresh” As We Know It




